Why Trump Secured a Breakthrough in Gaza Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Donald Trump and Putin's scheduled negotiations on the almost four-year conflict in the region have been put on hold.

Accounts of an impending American-Russian presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.

Just days after Donald Trump announced he intended to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.

A initial meeting by the two nations' leading diplomats has been cancelled, too.

"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump informed reporters at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I'll see what transpires."
  • Trump states he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after plan for negotiations with Putin postponed
  • Letdown in Kyiv as President Zelensky leaves White House without results

The frequently changing meeting is just the latest development in the president's efforts to mediate an end to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a subject of increased attention for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement in the Palestinian territory.

While making remarks in Egypt recently to celebrate that truce deal, Trump addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.

"It is essential to get the Russian situation resolved," he declared.

Nonetheless, the circumstances that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for almost four years.

Less Leverage

According to the lead negotiator, the crucial element to unlocking a agreement was Israel's move to strike representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a move that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but provided Trump bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into making a deal.

Trump gained from a long record of supporting Israel since his first term, encompassing his decision to move the US embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against Iran.

The US president, in fact, is better regarded among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a situation that gave him unique influence over the nation's head.

Combine Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to secure an deal.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, the president has much less leverage. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between attempts to strong-arm Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.

The US leader has threatened to enact additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that doing so could disrupt the global economy and further escalate the war.

At the same time, the US leader has criticized openly Ukraine's president, halting briefly information exchange with Ukraine and suspending arms shipments to the country - only to then retreat in the face of worried European partners who caution a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the entire region.

Trump loves to tout his skill to meet and negotiate agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to move the hostilities any nearer a peaceful end.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Donald Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded little tangible outcome.

The Russian president may in fact be exploiting Trump's desire for a settlement – and faith in direct negotiations - as a method of manipulating him.

In July, Putin agreed to a summit in Alaska just as it seemed probable that Trump would approve on legislative penalties supported by Senate Republicans. That bill was afterwards put on hold.

Recently, as news emerged that the White House was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the Russian leader phoned the US president who then touted the potential meeting in Budapest.

The following day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but departed empty-handed after a allegedly strained discussion.

The US leader maintained that he was not being played by Putin.

"You know, I have been manipulated throughout my career by the best of them, and I emerged really well," he remarked.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

But the president of Ukraine later made note of the sequence of events.

"As soon as the matter of long-range mobility became a less accessible for Ukraine – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less engaged in negotiations," he stated.

Thus, in a matter of days, the president has bounced from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to Ukraine to organizing a Budapest summit with Putin and confidentially urging the Ukrainian president to cede all of Donbas – including territory Russia has been unable to conquer.

He has ultimately settled on calling for a ceasefire along present frontlines – a proposal the Russian government has refused to accept.

On the campaign trail last year, the candidate promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has since discarded that pledge, saying that ending the war is proving more difficult than he anticipated.

It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of establishing a peace plan when neither side desires, or can afford to, cease hostilities.

Michael Garcia
Michael Garcia

A seasoned blackjack enthusiast and strategist with over a decade of experience in casino gaming and player education.