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Elections are now in progress for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, although analysts suggest PVV is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and established a multi-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's support has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer amid a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a election period focused on topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with several experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote earns a party one MP. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of division means that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is excluded from government. But, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks could take months, analysts suggest that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.